United States: More than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide over the next six months as an exceptionally strong El Niño drives temperatures higher, according to new estimates from climate scientists.
The projected toll covers the period from September 2026 to February 2027 and comes on top of deaths already linked to rising temperatures caused by the climate crisis. Researchers warn that the impacts could be felt across multiple regions, particularly tropical countries including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil.
The researchers estimate that around 451,000 people could die from the additional heat associated with the current El Niño. The United States is also expected to experience thousands of additional heat-related deaths, with about 3,500 projected over the six months.
The estimates were developed by researchers associated with the Climate Impact Lab and academic institutions, using methods that examine the relationship between monthly temperatures and excess heat deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide. The researchers then combined those findings with forecasts for the additional warming expected from El Niño.
The baseline used in the analysis was the average number of heat-related deaths recorded each month between 1996 and 2025. The researchers stressed that the projections are intended to help authorities identify areas where preventive measures could reduce the loss of life.
Potential measures include improving heat-warning systems, establishing cooling centres, increasing medical staffing during periods of extreme heat and strengthening protections for people working outdoors.
The current El Niño has already exceeded the highest temperature previously recorded for the phenomenon, according to recent observations. Its intensity has prompted scientists to describe the event as exceptionally severe, with its peak still several months away.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that periodically shifts heat across the Pacific Ocean and influences weather conditions around the world. Scientists have warned that human-driven global warming can intensify the consequences of such events by creating a much warmer baseline.
Researchers said elevated heat-related deaths could continue beyond the current projection period, potentially extending into June or July 2027 as the effects of the event persist. Beyond direct health impacts, the unusually strong El Niño is expected to put additional pressure on food and water supplies. The World Food Program has warned that the phenomenon could push around 50 million more people into acute hunger while contributing to higher food prices.
Scientists have also highlighted the wider risks posed by droughts, wildfires and flooding associated with El Niño conditions. Historically, severe El Niño events have been linked to major disruptions to agriculture and food security in several parts of the world.
The researchers described the current event as an indication of what increasingly extreme temperatures could look like in the future. They stressed that emergency measures can help protect people during the present crisis, but long-term preparation and efforts to address climate change will be necessary as extreme heat becomes more frequent.
The report’s authors said advance forecasts could enable governments and communities to prepare for extreme heat in much the same way that early-warning systems are used to anticipate threats to crops and food supplies. They emphasised that acting before temperatures peak could help reduce preventable deaths.
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