Washington: US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of trying to influence November’s midterm elections by prolonging the war, drawing the conflict more deeply into the domestic political battle confronting his administration.
Speaking to reporters before travelling to Dallas for the Republican Party’s midterm convention, Trump predicted that the war would end shortly after Americans vote on 3 November. Trump argued that Tehran was seeking to affect the election but would ultimately be unable to withstand sustained US economic pressure.
“They are desperate to try and affect the election,” Trump said. He also predicted that oil prices, which have risen sharply during the conflict, would fall once the fighting ended, while maintaining that negotiations with Tehran remained possible.
War enters the political arena
Recent polling points to a clear decline in public support for the conflict as the war enters its seventh month. A Reuters/Ipsos survey published on September 4 found that only 25 per cent of Americans believed the war with Iran had been worthwhile, highlighting the growing political pressure surrounding the conflict as the midterm elections approach.
The challenge for Republicans extends beyond foreign policy. Trump’s overall approval rating has also weakened, while concerns over inflation, household costs and the wider economic impact of the war have become increasingly important to voters. With Republicans seeking to defend narrow majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the conflict is becoming a significant part of the domestic political debate.
For the White House, the war is therefore no longer viewed solely through the lens of national security. Its duration, economic consequences and effect on public confidence are increasingly intertwined with the electoral battle that will determine control of Congress in November.
Economic cost of war
Energy prices have become one of the clearest points at which foreign policy and domestic politics now intersect. Disruptions to Middle Eastern oil production and shipping have tightened global supplies and kept prices elevated.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Brent crude averaged $91 a barrel in August, up $7 from July, as exports from the Middle East remained constrained. The EIA expects Brent to average around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026, while warning that changing conditions in the conflict could produce greater short-term price volatility.
For the White House, that creates a difficult political equation. Trump argues that mounting economic pressure will eventually force Tehran towards an end to the conflict, but the longer the confrontation continues, the greater the risk that elevated energy prices feed through into inflation, transport costs and household spending.
His prediction that both the war and elevated oil prices could ease after the election therefore carries significance far beyond military strategy. It places an electoral timeline around a conflict whose course remains uncertain, while linking developments in the Middle East more directly to the economic pressures confronting American voters and the political calendar in Washington.
An allegation with wider implications
Trump’s assertion that Tehran is attempting to influence the election adds another layer of sensitivity to an already consequential conflict. He has not presented independent evidence establishing that Iran is deliberately prolonging the war to affect the midterm result, meaning the claim remains the president’s interpretation of Tehran’s strategy.
What is beyond dispute, however, is that the war has become politically consequential. Republicans are fighting to retain control of Congress, while Trump has placed himself at the centre of their campaign despite not appearing on the ballot. At the Dallas convention, he urged supporters to approach the midterms almost as if his own name were being voted on and pledged to campaign in competitive congressional races across the country.
November’s wider test
The November 3rd elections could become one of the most important political tests of Trump’s second term. If Republicans lose either chamber of Congress, the administration could face greater scrutiny, legislative resistance and tighter constraints on its domestic agenda. If they retain both, Trump would emerge from the election with his political authority reinforced and greater room to pursue his programme.
That is why the Iran war now matters far beyond the battlefield. It sits at the intersection of foreign policy, energy security, inflation, public confidence and political power, turning a distant conflict into an increasingly immediate test for American voters.
As November approaches, the central question is no longer simply how the war ends. It is also how deeply its consequences will shape the balance of power in Washington.
If Republicans Lose Control
A Republican setback in November would not remove Trump from office, as he is not on the midterm ballot. But losing either the House or the Senate could significantly reshape the final two years of his presidency, forcing the White House into tougher negotiations over legislation, spending and key policy priorities.
Democratic control of the House could bring more intensive congressional scrutiny through hearings, investigations and subpoenas. Losing the Senate would create a different constraint, potentially making it harder to secure confirmation for judges, ambassadors and senior administration officials. Any post-election legal disputes would normally focus on individual races, ballots, certification procedures or election rules rather than the midterms as a single national result.
The larger question, therefore, is not whether Trump would remain president, but how much political and institutional freedom he would retain. A hostile Congress could turn the closing phase of his presidency into a period of sustained legislative resistance, oversight and confrontation.
More dramatic outcomes, including resignation or eventual presidential succession, are constitutionally possible in theory, but there is currently no basis to treat them as a likely consequence of a midterm defeat. What may prove more significant is how Trump responds to the constraints of governing without Republican control, a question that could become one of the defining political tests of the post-election period.
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