California: Kamala Harris’s concluding remarks at the Democratic National Convention didn’t significantly impact the attendees’ voting intentions. However, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially withdrawing, the presidential race may shift. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest national poll average, Harris leads Trump by 3.5 points. National surveys show Kamala slightly ahead of Trump, but the race remains close, especially in swing states.
The latest national survey by Outward Intelligence, conducted from 18th to 22nd August, shows no significant boost for Kamala following this week’s DNC. In this poll, Harris leads Trump by 6 points with 49.5% of the vote. However, there has been no change from last week’s poll. The survey suggests that Trump and Kamala will face off directly, with Trump closing in on Kamala’s lead, reducing the vice president’s support from 52% to 48%.
Sources close to Kennedy Jr.’s campaign indicate that he may soon withdraw from the race and potentially endorse Trump. While it’s unclear how his exit will impact the Trump-Kamala poll numbers, analysis from The Independent suggests that RFK Jr. remains more popular in places like New Mexico and may attract some young voters.
According to the Morning Consult Megapoll, independent voters are leaning more towards Kamala Harris with a 3-point lead. Independent votes are crucial for either Kamala or Trump to gain an advantage in the US presidential election. Kamala is performing strongly with young voters, women voters, and Black voters, leading by +65 points. In battleground states, while Trump holds strong in Nevada, Kamala leads in six out of seven states. An Emerson College poll shows Kamala Harris as the only candidate with a +2% net favourable opinion overall.
Based on the latest national poll averages, Kamala Harris currently leads Donald Trump by 3.5 points; however, the race remains close, particularly in swing states. Kamala Harris leads in six of the seven key swing states, while Donald Trump maintains a strong lead in Nevada.
However, some studies suggest that young and middle-aged people believe that 78-year-old Trump often behaves very emotionally, which they see as natural, and they think this emotional intensity is likely to increase with age. In contrast, they view Kamala, who is about 20 years younger than Trump, as more mature and sensible. They also believe her worldview and national interests are more thoughtful and balanced than Trump’s.
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