California: According to analysts from Piper Sandler, Donald Trump is currently a “slight favorite” in the upcoming 2024 US presidential election. Despite a narrow lead in national polls and key Midwestern states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the race remains tight.
Piper Sandler analysts noted, “The odds of a comfortable Biden victory (and a Democratic Senate, which was always a reach) have declined.” They added that the party winning the White House is likely to control the House of Representatives as well.
The 2024 election is expected to have a significant impact on financial markets. Both candidates present various risks, both tangible and intangible. Investors are particularly concerned about macroeconomic issues, including a potential reversal of decades-long trade liberalization, heightened geopolitical risks, unstable fiscal policies, and potential changes in taxes, regulation, and immigration.
Piper Sandler’s team highlighted that investors are especially focused on potential tariffs and the future of the green subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Sectors such as financials, healthcare, energy, defense, and industrials are closely watching the election outcome.
For intangible risks, analysts pointed out that one candidate is “temperamentally unfit to serve” while the other is “physically unfit.” They added, “Both are a threat to the rule of law, radicalizing their own party and the opposition, have legal and ethical problems, are viewed as illegitimate by half the country, and have no desire to persuade the country and are too unpopular to be heard.”
Piper Sandler’s current election odds are 60% for the Republican Party winning the White House, 55% for securing the House, and 85% for winning the Senate.
The report also identifies several areas where Trump is perceived to have an advantage over Biden, including the economy, immigration, inflation, and America’s global standing. A CNN poll from late April 2024 shows Trump leading Biden by 14 points on economic issues and by 17 points on immigration. Trump is also viewed more favorably regarding inflation, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and crime and safety.
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