Taiwan: A new report has stated that Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election will be a ‘window of opportunity’ to restart discussions between Taipei and Beijing, with the aim of reducing tensions and lowering the risk of conflict.
The report by the International Crisis Group noted that a war over Taiwan is not inevitable, but “the current trajectory is dangerous.”
Taiwan is now functioning as the greatest potential flashpoint for conflict between China and the US, Taiwan’s strongest supporter. Beijing claims Taiwan to be a Chinese province and has insisted it will be “reunified.” Taiwan’s government, led by the Democratic Progress Party’s (DPP) Ms. Tsai Ing-wen, affirms that Taiwan is already a sovereign nation, and its people oppose Chinese rule in the province.
Recent polling by Taiwan’s mainland affairs council found 85.3 percent of the public opposed to Beijing’s proposal of “one country, two systems.” Beijing ended all forms of dialogue with Taipei after Ms. Tsai’s election in 2016 in response to the DPP’s position.
According to the report, since Ms. Tsai will step down early next year after her second and final term, the handover could present “a window of opportunity to resume cross-strait dialogue.”
Recently, Beijing has increased its military and coercive actions towards Taiwan, including rehearsals of an attack on Taiwan, cyberattacks and scaling up its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone.
The report noted the US, which provides weapons to Taiwan for its self-defence but has also become more vocally supportive, also has a part to play in reducing tensions. According to the analysis, Washington’s recent behaviour “may well be making conflict more likely”.
“A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely any time soon, but the risk of conflict is rising,” the International Crisis Group’s senior China analyst, Ms. Amanda Hsiao, observed in the report.
“Managing it requires the parties to re-establish a baseline level of trust by shoring up longstanding political understandings. Washington should credibly assure Beijing that it does not seek to keep Taiwan permanently separated from the mainland. Taipei should credibly assure Beijing that it does not seek formal independence. Beijing should credibly assure Washington and Taipei that it has not decided to unify with Taiwan through military force,” the report added.
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