Italy: A new report has stated that the long-feared “population bomb” may not go off and has estimated that human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast.
The study, commissioned by the Club of Rome, suggested that the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century and then decline rapidly. The peak might be reached earlier if countries adopt the required progressive steps to raise average incomes and education levels.
According to the report, once the demographic bulge is overcome, pressure on nature and the climate should start to ease, along with associated social and political tensions.
Mr. Ben Callegari, one of the authors of the report, commented that “this gives us evidence to believe the population bomb won’t go off, but we still face significant challenges from an environmental perspective. We need a lot of effort to address the current development paradigm of overconsumption and overproduction, which are bigger problems than population.”
The authors further warn that falling birthrates alone will not solve the planet’s environmental problems, which are already serious at the 7.8 billion level and are primarily caused by the excess consumption of a wealthy minority.
As countries such as Japan and South Korea find, declining populations can create new problems such as a shrinking workforce and increased strain on healthcare systems associated with an ageing society.
In 2022, the UN estimated the world population would hit 9.7 billion by the middle of the century and continue to rise for several decades afterwards.
The new study, was carried out by the Earth4All collective of leading environmental science and economic institutions, including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School. They were commissioned by the Club of Rome for a followup to its seminal Limits to Growth study more than 50 years ago.
WORLD ROUNDUP: International Criminal Court raises concern on Russian ‘threats’ over Putin’s warrant
