London: A new global study has warned that nearly 1.8 billion people could be affected by Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease by 2050, driven by rising obesity, high blood sugar levels, and population growth.
MASLD, previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is already one of the most common and fastest-growing liver conditions worldwide. Current estimates indicate that around 1.3 billion people are living with the disease, reflecting a 143 percent increase over the past three decades. Today, approximately one in six people globally, around 16 percent, are affected.
The findings, published in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, are based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study. According to the research, the number of cases is expected to rise by a further 42 percent from 2023 levels, reaching 1.8 billion by 2050.
In 1990, an estimated 500 million people had MASLD. This figure surged to 1.3 billion by 2023, alongside a 29 percent increase in global prevalence, which reached 14,429 cases per 100,000 people.
The disease is more prevalent in men than women and shows the highest rates among older adults aged 80 to 84. However, the largest number of individuals affected falls within younger age groups, men aged 35 to 39 and women aged 55 to 59, highlighting a shift towards earlier onset.
High blood sugar has emerged as the leading driver of MASLD-related health complications globally, followed by high body mass index (BMI) and smoking. These risk factors underscore the strong link between MASLD, Type 2 diabetes, and obesity.
Regionally, North Africa and the Middle East report disproportionately higher prevalence rates compared with other parts of the world, although significant increases have been observed globally. In the UK, prevalence rose by 33 percent between 1990 and 2023, the highest increase in western Europe, while Australia recorded a 30 percent rise and the United States saw a 22 percent increase.
Despite the growing number of cases, the overall health burden, measured in years of life lost due to illness or premature death, has remained relatively stable. This suggests improvements in treatment and care are helping individuals live longer and healthier lives, with many cases identified at earlier stages.
However, experts warn that the rising number of cases increases the risk of serious complications, including liver cirrhosis and cancer, in the future. MASLD is often associated with excess weight but can typically be managed through lifestyle changes such as healthier diets and increased physical activity.
The condition is frequently asymptomatic, meaning many people may be unaware they have it. When symptoms do occur, they may include fatigue, general discomfort, and pain in the upper right abdomen beneath the ribs.
The study was led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Researchers emphasised that MASLD is increasingly affecting younger adults due to worsening health and lifestyle patterns.
They stressed that the sharp rise in cases highlights the need to recognise MASLD as a global public health priority, calling for stronger policies, awareness campaigns, and targeted interventions to reduce its impact and prevent long-term complications.
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