Washington DC: The CIA has offered a new assessment on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, suggesting that a lab leak is “more likely” than the virus coming from animals. However, the agency stressed that it has “low confidence” in this conclusion due to insufficient or conflicting intelligence.
The statement was issued under the leadership of John Ratcliffe, the newly appointed CIA director, who took office under former President Trump.
Ratcliffe, who has long supported the lab leak theory, has previously argued that Covid most likely originated from a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is located about 40 minutes from the Huanan wet market, where the first cluster of infections emerged.
The new CIA assessment, however, is not based on any new intelligence. It reportedly predates the Trump administration, with the review being ordered in the closing weeks of the Biden administration and completed before Trump assumed office on Monday, 20th of January.
The assessment’s “low confidence” rating means the intelligence is considered insufficient, inconclusive, or contradictory. While there is no consensus on the origins of the pandemic, the theory of a “natural origin,” which suggests the virus spread naturally from animals, continues to have support.
On the other hand, the lab leak hypothesis remains contentious, with many scientists dismissing it due to a lack of definitive evidence. China has also dismissed the lab leak theory as political manipulation by the United States.
Nonetheless, the lab leak theory has gained traction among some intelligence agencies, with FBI Director Christopher Wray stating in 2023 that his agency believes the pandemic’s origins were “most likely a potential lab incident.”
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