United States: A study has discovered that the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation is about to reach a tipping point, which is “bad news for the climate system and humanity.”
Although they acknowledged that it was still too soon to predict when the point would be reached, the research’s scientists expressed shock at the predicted speed of collapse.
The researchers created an early warning system for the collapse of the massive ocean current system known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), which is a crucial element in regulating the planet’s climate. They did this by utilising computer models and historical data.
They discovered that Amoc is already headed for a sudden change that hasn’t occurred in over 10,000 years and could have disastrous effects on a sizable portion of the planet.
By searching for warning indications in the salinity levels at the southernmost point of the Atlantic Ocean between Cape Town and Buenos Aires, the recently published paper, which was published in Science Advances, has set new records. Simulating changes over a period of 2,000 years on computer models of the global climate, it was found that a slow decline can lead to a sudden collapse over less than 100 years, with calamitous consequences.
“This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up until now one could think that Amoc tipping was only a theoretical concept and tipping would disappear as soon as the full climate system, with all its additional feedbacks, was considered,” the paper said, citing the results as a “clear answer” to the question of whether such an abrupt shift was possible.
A few of the effects of the collapse of Amoc were also charted. Many coastal cities would be submerged when the Atlantic’s sea level rose by one metre in some places. The Amazon’s wet and dry seasons would alternate, possibly pushing the already fragile rainforest over its own breaking point. The global temperature would vary far more wildly. The temperature in the southern hemisphere would rise. There would be a sharp drop in temperature and rainfall in Europe. Even though this seems appealing in comparison to the current heating trend, adaptation would be nearly impossible because the changes would occur ten times faster than they do now.
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