New York: An alarming new report has revealed that nearly a third of the land area larger than India has shifted from humid to dryland conditions in just the past three decades, particularly impacting agriculture and water resources. Drylands now account for 40 per cent of Earth’s land area, excluding Antarctica, with 75 per cent of the world’s land experiencing worsening aridity since 1990. The changes are likely to be permanent, according to the study by the UN Science Policy Interface, a body of scientists convened by the United Nations.
The economic toll of increasing aridity is already being felt. Africa lost approximately 12 per cent of its GDP between 1990 and 2015 due to the expanding drylands, with future losses projected to reach 16 per cent for Africa and nearly 7 per cent for Asia by 2030. The report warns that global agricultural yields, particularly maize in Kenya, could plummet, with some regions seeing crop production halved by mid-century if current trends persist.
Ibrahim Thiaw, Executive Secretary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), highlighted the irreversible nature of this transformation, stating that, “Unlike droughts, which are temporary, aridity depicts a permanent, unrelenting change to the climate that no longer allows for a return to previous conditions.”
Water availability is also under threat. Drylands, where 90% of rainfall evaporates, will store remarkably less water by mid-century, with two-thirds of the planet’s land facing severe water scarcity. By 2100, an estimated 60 per cent of the global population will live in these arid regions, up from 30 per cent in 2020.
Experts warn that urgent action is needed. Barron Orr, Chief Scientist at UNCCD, stressed that the burning of fossil fuels is a major driver of this permanent drying, creating a malicious cycle of water insecurity, biodiversity loss, and soil degradation. Governments, including those participating in the current global conference in Riyadh, must take decisive steps to combat the crisis through sustainable agriculture, water management, reforestation, and emissions reduction.
Despite the dire warnings, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s most arid countries, has shown unwillingness to address the climate crisis directly, focusing more on land restoration efforts rather than acknowledging the role of climate change.
Mark Maslin, a professor at University College London, called for comprehensive solutions, stating that, “We can curb emissions, adapt to drying conditions, and execute sustainable practices to reduce the impact of desertification.” Without immediate action, millions of people in vulnerable regions will face devastating impacts, including food shortages, forced migration, and worsening poverty.
Kate Gannon, a research fellow at the Grantham Institute, emphasised the socio-economic repercussions, noting that rising aridity worsens inequality, exacerbates resource scarcity, and accelerates land degradation, leading to broader global challenges that demand urgent attention.
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