Washington: US Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nomination, topping the latest straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference(CPAC).
During the four-day conference, attendees were asked to choose their preferred candidate to lead the party in the next presidential election. The results, showed Vance securing 53 percent of the vote from nearly 1,600 participants.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio rose significantly in the rankings, garnering 35 percent support. The result marks a notable improvement for Rubio, who had tied for fourth place in last year’s CPAC straw poll with just 3 percent backing.
In contrast, the previous poll, conducted shortly after Donald Trump began his second term, saw Vance dominate with 61 percent, followed by former adviser Steve Bannon at 12 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 7 percent. Rubio and Representative Elise Stefanik trailed at 3 percent each.
Shifting republican landscape
The CPAC gathering, known for its strong conservative lean, featured prominent speakers including Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, and Brazilian political figures Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro, sons of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
This year’s poll comes at a crucial moment for Republicans, with less than eight months remaining before the US midterm elections. The party is aiming to maintain its congressional majorities amid declining approval.
Battle lines for 2028
With Trump constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in 2028, attention is shifting to potential successors within the party.
Vance is widely seen as representing the more isolationist wing of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ movement, often expressing scepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts. However, he has supported recent joint military actions with Israel targeting Iran.
Rubio, on the other hand, brings extensive political experience, having served as a senator from Florida from 2011 until his confirmation as secretary of state in 2025. Rubio is generally viewed as more hawkish on foreign policy, particularly regarding Cuba.
Both leaders were once critics of Trump. Vance had previously described him as unfit for office, while Rubio labelled him a ‘con artist’ during the 2016 Republican primaries. Despite that history, both now play central roles in Trump’s administration.
Influence of CPAC polls
While CPAC straw polls are not always predictive of election outcomes, they have reflected broader ideological shifts within the Republican Party over time.
Before Trump’s rise, figures like Mitt Romney and Rand Paul frequently topped the polls. However, since 2017, Trump has consistently dominated CPAC surveys, even after his 2020 election loss.
The latest results suggest that while Trump remains the party’s central figure, a new generation of leaders is beginning to define the contours of the Republican Party’s future.
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