China: According to a new study from Hongkong, about 1 million people in China may die from COVID-19 as the government rapidly abandons zero-COVID policy.

The preventive strategy of the Chinese government, that is, strict lockdowns, centralised quarantines, mass testing, and rigorous contact tracing to control the spread of the virus, was abandoned earlier this month following an explosion of protests across the country against stringent restrictions that have upended businesses and daily life.

Based on the projections by three professors at the University of Hong Kong, a nationwide reopening could result in up to 684 deaths per million people. This means that 964,400 people from China’s 1.4 billion-person population may perish.

“The surge of infections would likely overload many local health systems across the country,” the research paper stated.

The study also pointed out that “with fourth-dose vaccination coverage of 85 percent and antiviral coverage of 60 percent, the death toll can be reduced by 26 percent to 35 percent.”

Mr. Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese CDC, warned that “the country is being hit by the first of three expected waves of infections this winter.”

Mr. Wu added that “the current wave would run until mid-January. The second wave is expected to last from late January to mid-February next year, triggered by the mass travel ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls on January 21. A third wave of cases would run from late February to mid-March as people returned to work after the week-long holiday.”