London: UK climate records have shown that 2025 is likely to surpass all previous years for average annual temperature, with provisional data indicating a national mean of about 10.05C.
That figure would narrowly exceed the previous record of 10.03C set in 2022, although final confirmation will depend on weather conditions during the final days of December.
The Met Office has calculated the projection using observed temperatures up to December 21, assuming remaining days follow long-term seasonal averages. While a colder end to the year could still influence the outcome, meteorologists have said the current data makes a new UK record the most likely scenario. Unusually warm conditions have dominated much of the year, combined with below-average rainfall in several regions.
These conditions have increased the risk of drought and wildfires during spring and summer, while temperatures peaked at 35.8C in parts of the country. Although those highs did not reach the extreme levels seen during the 2022 heatwave, sustained warmth across multiple months has driven the annual average higher.
Climate scientists at the Met Office have said the pattern reflects long-term trends rather than short-term variability. Amy Doherty, a climate scientist at the Met Office, said that human-caused climate change has been driving rising temperatures in the UK in line with global warming patterns. Data shows that by the end of 2025, the UK’s ten warmest years on record will all have occurred within the last two decades.
Spring and summer have both been recorded as the warmest on record in the UK, with each month from March to August more than 2C above the 1961–1990 long-term average. Four separate heatwaves were declared across large parts of the country, prompting the UK Health Security Agency to issue multiple heat-health alerts.
Mike Kendon of the Met Office said the changes seen in UK climate data were unprecedented in records dating back to the nineteenth century. Kendon added that continued warming means conditions once considered exceptional are increasingly becoming the norm.
Scientists have warned that rising UK temperatures will have long-term implications for public health, water resources and infrastructure planning, particularly as extreme heat events become more frequent.
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