Manchester: Three recent British opinion polls, released late on Saturday, depict a challenging scenario for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party. One pollster even warned that the party might face “electoral extinction” in the upcoming July 4 election.
The polls were released midway through the election campaign, following a week where both the Conservatives and Labour unveiled their manifestos, and just before postal ballots start reaching voters.
Sunak had surprised many within his party by calling an early election on May 22, contrary to expectations that he would wait until later in the year to allow for a recovery in living standards after 40 years of high inflation.
According to market research company Savanta, support for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party rose to 46%, a 2-point increase from the previous poll five days earlier, while Conservative support dropped 4 points to 21%. This poll was conducted from June 12 to June 14 for the Sunday Telegraph.
Labour’s 25-point lead is the largest since the tenure of Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, whose tax cut plans had led to a sell-off of British government bonds, increased interest rates, and necessitated a Bank of England intervention.
“Our research indicates that this election could result in electoral extinction for the Conservative Party,” stated Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta.
A separate Survation poll, published by the Sunday Times, forecasted that the Conservatives could end up with just 72 seats in the 650-member House of Commons, the lowest in their nearly 200-year history, while Labour could secure 456 seats. This poll was conducted from May 31 to June 13.
In terms of percentage, the Survation poll showed Labour at 40%, the Conservatives at 24%, and former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party at 12%.
A third poll by Opinium for Sunday’s Observer, conducted from June 12 to June 14, also showed Labour at 40%, the Conservatives at 23%, and Reform at 14%, indicating that the two largest parties are losing ground to smaller rivals.
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