Kamala Harris has taken a narrow lead over Donald Trump, with a 48%-43% advantage in a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll. This marks an eight-point shift since late June when Trump led Joe Biden by nearly four points.
Harris’s lead, within the poll’s margin of error, reflects significant shifts among key demographic groups vital to Democrats. Notably, Hispanic, Black, and young voters have moved decisively toward Harris. Among those earning less than $20,000 annually, a three-point Trump lead in June has turned into a 23-point advantage for Harris.
The poll, conducted after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, suggests momentum for Harris as the general election nears. The survey, involving 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Demographic Shifts Propel Harris’s Lead
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted the impact of the Democratic Convention, where targeted appeals resonated with young people, people of color, and low-income households.
- Young Voters (18 to 34 years old): Shifted from an 11-point preference for Trump to a 13-point preference for Harris (49%-36%).
- Hispanic Voters: Moved from supporting Trump by 2 points to supporting Harris by 16 points (53%-37%).
- Black Voters: Increased their support, moving from a 47-point lead for Biden to a 64-point lead for Harris (76%-12%).
- Lower-Income Voters: Now back Harris 58%-35%, reflecting her focus on affordable housing and economic opportunities.
Election Dynamics
Voters recognize the significance of this election. Harris, the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent nominated for president by a major party, contrasts sharply with Trump and Biden.
Amy Hendrix, 46, from Fort Worth, expressed her enthusiasm for Harris, saying, “I’m very excited to vote for a woman, and that’s just the truth.” However, Jason Streem, 46, a dentist from Cleveland, criticized Harris’s nomination process, stating, “She was never part of the running process. She never received the primary votes.”
Biden’s decision to step back from his re-election bid a month ago, under pressure from party leaders, paved the way for Harris to secure the nomination.
Impact of Third-Party Candidates
This poll is also the first since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out and endorsed Trump. Cornel West, polling at 2%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver, each at 1%, are attracting some support. Among voters backing third-party candidates, 32% would choose Harris as their second choice, 24% would choose West, and 15% would choose Trump.
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