Paris: Global demand for oil and gas could continue rising until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest World Energy Outlook released, marking a major shift from its earlier forecasts of a swift transition to cleaner fuels.
The agency warned that the world is likely to miss its key climate targets under current policy trajectories. The IEA, often regarded as the West’s energy security watchdog, has faced political pressure in recent years, particularly from the United States. Under US President Donald Trump, the agency came under calls to focus more on boosting oil and gas output, while under Joe Biden, it projected global oil demand would peak this decade and advised against new fossil fuel investments if climate goals were to be met.
However, in its latest assessment, the IEA has reverted to a current policies scenario, one that factors in existing government measures rather than future climate pledges. It forecasts that oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up roughly 13 percent from 2024, and that overall global energy demand will rise 15 percent by 2035.
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The agency last used this baseline approach in 2019 before shifting to scenarios aligned with global net-zero targets. It said it had intended to include new national climate targets for 2031–2035, but too few countries have submitted them to form a meaningful global picture.
Under the IEA’s stated policies scenario which includes announced but not yet implemented measures, oil demand would still peak around 2030. The agency emphasised that its scenarios are not forecasts but analytical pathways showing potential outcomes based on differing assumptions.
LNG capacity and data centre surge
The report highlights a sharp increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) investments in 2025, with around 300 billion cubic metres of new annual export capacity expected to come online by 2030, a 50 percent increase in global supply. Under the current policy scenario, LNG demand rises from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and 1,020 bcm by 2050, driven largely by the expanding power needs of data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Global investment in data centres could reach $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion spent annually on oil supply, the report added.
Climate goals slipping out of reach
Despite ongoing efforts, the IEA’s findings suggest that the world is set to exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold agreed under the 2015 Paris climate accord. Temperatures are expected to rise beyond that level in all scenarios except the most ambitious net-zero pathway, which assumes the large-scale deployment of carbon removal technologies.
With fossil fuel demand projected to grow and emissions staying high, the IEA’s latest analysis paints a sobering picture of the global energy transition, one that may fall far short of the targets needed to curb the worst effects of climate change.
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