Dhaka: Bangladesh is set to hold what many describe as its first truly competitive general election in more than a decade, marking a dramatic political shift following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.
For years under Hasina’s rule, opposition parties had little visibility during elections, often boycotting the polls or facing widespread arrests of senior leaders. This time, however, the Awami League is banned from contesting, and the political landscape has been transformed ahead of vote.
Many young activists who played a central role in the 2024 uprising that removed Hasina from power say the February 12 election could reset Bangladesh’s democratic trajectory. If so, it would be the first genuinely contested vote since 2009, when Hasina began her 15-year tenure.
BNP favoured, Jamaat mounts strong challenge
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely expected to emerge as the largest party. BNP chief Tarique Rahman told that his party, contesting 292 out of 300 parliamentary seats, is confident of securing enough seats to form the next government.
However, a coalition led by the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami is mounting a serious challenge. A new political group driven by Generation Z activists many under 30 has aligned with Jamaat after struggling to convert its street mobilisation against Hasina into a strong electoral base.
Opinion polls suggest Jamaat, once banned and historically opposed to Bangladesh’s 1971 independence from Pakistan, could record its best electoral performance to date, even if it falls short of victory.
Stability and economy at stake
Analysts stress that a decisive mandate is crucial for restoring stability in the nation of 175 million people. Hasina’s removal triggered months of unrest that disrupted key sectors, including the garments industry, where Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest exporter.
Since 2022, Bangladesh has sought large-scale external financing, securing billions of dollars from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
A recent survey by Dhaka-based think tanks Communication & Research Foundation and Bangladesh Election and Public Opinion Studies found that corruption is the top concern among the country’s 128 million voters, followed by inflation and broader economic challenges. Analysts say Jamaat’s relatively clean image is working in its favour, possibly more than its Islamic ideology.
Regional power dynamics in focus
The election outcome is also expected to reshape Bangladesh’s foreign policy dynamics, particularly its relations with regional powers China and India.
Beijing’s influence has grown since Hasina widely seen as pro-India fled to New Delhi after her ouster. While India’s standing in Dhaka appears to have diminished, analysts suggest the BNP may be relatively more aligned with New Delhi compared to Jamaat.
A Jamaat-led government could potentially tilt closer to Pakistan, analysts say. Meanwhile, Jamaat’s Gen Z ally has openly criticised what it calls ‘New Delhi’s hegemony’ and has reportedly engaged with Chinese diplomats.
Jamaat has insisted it is not inclined toward any specific country, while BNP’s Rahman has pledged friendly relations with any nation that offers what is suitable for my people and my country.
As Bangladesh heads to the polls, the stakes extend far beyond party politics. The result will shape the country’s democratic future, economic recovery and regional alliances in South Asia’s shifting geopolitical landscape.
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