London: Copper demand has been witnessing a geographical shift as consumption in the United States and India grows, while China’s long-standing dominance begins to slow.
The industrial metal, which once surged from $1,500 to above $10,000 (about £8,200) per metric ton over the past 25 years, is now entering a new phase driven by regional diversification.
Analysts have said that although China will remain the world’s largest copper market, the next decade will see greater balance as other regions increase their influence on pricing and demand. The changing mix of industrial policies, infrastructure investments, and geopolitical adjustments is expected to reshape the global copper market.
Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price said that China would likely reduce its copper consumption and stockpiling, shifting global dynamics back to replacement and infrastructure cycles outside Asia’s largest economy. Price added that demand from sectors such as power infrastructure, manufacturing localisation, and data centre development would drive global consumption forward.
Efforts by the United States and several other countries to strengthen domestic manufacturing have started to affect China’s exports and factory activity, leading to lower refined copper demand. China’s requirement is expected to fall to around 15 million tons this year, while global trends move towards diversified consumption.
The expansion of AI-driven data centres and upgrades to power grid systems are now emerging as major growth catalysts. Price forecast that Chinese copper consumption will be about six percent lower in 2031 compared to 2026, accounting for 52 percent of global demand, around 27 million tons, down from 57 percent in 2026.
The United States is forecast to record copper demand of 2.2 million tons by 2031, almost 50 percent higher than in 2026. In India, demand is projected to surpass 1 million tons, up more than 30 percent as the country accelerates power transmission projects aimed at achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects copper demand in Asia (excluding China) to rise 25 percent to over 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030. For power infrastructure, data centres, and telecoms, copper use is set to climb 35 percent to 2.2 million tons, signalling a structural shift in global consumption patterns.
YOU MAY LIKE | Voices of tomorrow: How Gen Z is rewriting the global narrative
